Tuesday, 7 June 2016

Normal volatility


General volatility normalizing.

Annual volatility as measured on a daily basis over the past 20 years, has risen since 2015, but this is a normalizing after some years of low volatility from quantitative easing programmes. It now actually stands near its 20y average over asset classes for SKAGENs funds (+ commodities). We could see increased volatility from some seemingly already extremely highly priced companies (according to an insight report there is ca. 150 private tech outfits led by teenagers valued at USD 1bln+ in the US alone.). Even without any shocks, volatility is likely to increase from structural changes: more high frequency trading and withdrawal of broker dealers have hurt trading liquidity in outdated market structures and this can give larger price moves.


*) The DXY index i.e. USD vs a basket of major trade currencies for USA (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF)

Over the past 5 years we see that a QE induced period of low volatility is now over and (despite QEs are set to continue), volatility has risen again fueled by political uncertainties. This is mainly connected to developments in the US and UK w.r.t. elections and the EU referendum, the interest rate setting from the Fed, growth uncertainties and spillovers from negative such in Russia and Brazil as well as fears of more unrest in the Middle East and uncertain Chinese growth.


For the rest of 2016 a global investor should also be aware of risk for QE effectiveness in especially Europe, a possible Chinese renmimbi devaluation as well as induced technological disruptions from rising costs from EM countries.

 

Monday, 30 May 2016

Risks, risks, risks…

We hear about them as a theme in fashion: financial, operational, liquidity…of any kind. Internal Auditors and Compliance Officers should know them. They should apply the business risk administration (“BRA”). But…

What is a risk?

A control?

For someone that is not a specialist let’s explain them in a simple and easy way:
A risk is something that could happen or not. In business it has been connoted in a negative way; something that could jeopardize to obtain or achieve the results. In business, a risk is mitigated but never eliminated. The risk is mitigated with a control.

Controls as risks have several types but let’s keep it simple. There are 4 types of them: manual (performed by a person), electronic (performed by a system), preventive and detective.

Depending upon the size of the company, its business lines, processes, resources, etc. controls should be designed in order to minimize risks. But, how to do it if the risks have not been identified? Here are the steps to deploy the BRA:

1. Analyze the company externally and internally. Start with an inventory of potential events that could affect it; such as the threats (external). This will depend on where the company is established and/or operates. For example: is a high risk jurisdiction for corruption or money laundering or tax evasion? What are the economic factors that could affect? How are the financial markets? How is the employment rate? Who is our competition? (direct and indirect) Which is the regulation we have to comply? What is the political environment? Which natural catastrophes could affect us? What is our customers’ behavior? Which emerging technology affects us?, Etc.


Afterwards, think about the inventory of events that could affect internally, such as: how is our relationship with shareholders? How is the processes design? Which is our staff capacity? How often are they trained? Do we depend on technology? How are we protecting our core business? (Confidential information such as formulas, plans, data, etc.) Do we cover our operating costs? How often maintenance is given to the equipment? How leveraged we are? Which kind of accidents could happen in our facilities? How is the surveillance? Which are the areas that manage cash or important information? Which are our more important products or services? Do we have an alternative provider in case the main fails? Have we established a mission, vision and values? Do our employees know them? Where the company keeps the money? Who has access to it? Do we manage a considerable amount of money?, etc.

2. Now that you got the list, start evaluating each event by these two questions:
a) In the case this event happens, what will be its impact on our business?

b) Which is its probability of occurrence?

Design a table in Excel with 3 columns: events, impact and probability of occurrence. Evaluate impact and likelihood in a scale of 0 to 10. It is recommended that for the first time done, someone in charge (either Internal Audit or Compliance) determines the list and afterwards send it to the other Area Directors so they can evaluate it, individually. Establish a deadline and a date for a meeting to share the results. That the same person in charge of the list, is the moderator between the Directors. The purpose of the meeting is that everybody explains their point of view and also to obtain a consensus answer. It sounds easy but it can be quite exhausting, especially if it is done for the first time. The key is that everybody participates so you’ll obtain two things: evaluation of risks and make sensitive the people who runs the company about what the company could face.

3. After you have the evaluation, divide the scale by three. Classify both the importance and probability of occurrence in high, medium and low. Start prioritizing the ones with the maximum number. Which are the risks that could easily happen and impact us more? Those will be the high risks. A medium probability and impact? And low?

4. Use a graph to place the risks, such as: (you can use the X axis or Y indistinctly for importance or likelihood)



This is a “risk map” or “heat map”…it’s a very useful tool to have an idea on how a company, process or area is today. Is like the “photo” of its vulnerabilities. As you can see, events could lead to threats and therefore become risks. What yesterday is a low risk, today can be a high risk or tomorrow a medium one. The risks are changing; they are dynamic. External factors change; they are out of the hands of the company; i.e. who would imagine that we would have drones? Internal factors, of course depend more on the company.

The importance of the BRA is to know the company in detail. Is to evaluate how vulnerable we are and know if we are prepared to minimize what it could turn a reality. Therefore it is recommended to be updated at least once a year, or when:
-an event occurs,
-a new event appears,
-a new system is bought,
-a new service or product will be launch, etc.
It should be again evaluated.


Next step: if you’ve already diagrammed the company process (in case you haven’t, please refer to the article: “Let’s draw! The importance of the flowchart”) that information will be helpful. From the risk list where will they be placed? (Depends if the flowchart has been done by area or process) On a next article we’ll continue…

By Mónica Ramírez Chimal, México
Partner of her own consultancy Firm, Asserto RSC:  www.TheAssertoRSC.com
Author of the books, “Don´t let them wash, Nor dry!” and “Make life yours!” published in Spanish and English. She has written several articles about risks, data protection, virtual currencies, money laundering. Monica is international lecturer and instructor and has been Internal Audit and Compliance Director for an international company.

Monday, 2 May 2016

Funds Transfer Pricing and the Quest for Term Funding: Working Towards New Solutions

Funds Transfer Pricing (FTP) is emerging as not just a nice to have, helpful tool in managing a financial services business, but in some cases has become a regulatory necessity. FTP, also called Collateral Transfer Pricing in some firms, is the exercise of allocating the cost of liquidity between business units at the same firm. It is no longer enough to have a friendly handshake about cost allocation, especially when one desk is providing liquidity and another is a high-octane consumer.
The new requirement is that a robust model be in place that can show all internal participants as well as regulators how costs are allocated and absorbed. While FTP started with capital market activities, the next evolutionary step is in expanding the concept to include money markets, repo trading and securities lending activities. FTP is a reflection of the fact that term liquidity has become a finite and scarce resource that is not easy to manufacture for capital markets.
Deka-logo-260x36A Brief History of the Problem
Before the financial crisis, neither FTP nor collateral optimization played much of a role in financial institutions. The traditional model was that Treasury or an Asset/Liability Management department would match up both sides of the balance sheet. The Treasury team would link illiquid loans on the one hand and retail funding plus an equity component on the other hand, making trades to balance the difference and consider the matter closed. There was often no explicit cost of liquidity or collateral consumption to any trading desk, and certainly trading desks were not paid if they were net contributors to the overall collateral pool.
The traditional Treasury did not really understand the capital markets concept that can easily separate legal and economic liquidity mismatches, both on the asset as well as on the liability side of the balance sheet. This is in a way remarkable as exactly this mismatch is considered to be the Achilles heel of any deposit based banking system. But Treasury managers were not looking beyond banking deposits.
To illustrate the nature of the problem, we take an example of how capital markets assets were measured at the time. While the purchase of an asset causes a €100 million outflow and produces a legal mismatch of, say, five years, it does not show up with this mismatch on the liquidity radar screen of a treasury department (see Exhibit 1). The reason for this is that assets could be funded any day in the repo market, exchanged in the securities lending markets, or sold without a great loss under the assumption that there is ample liquidity and value at risk is relatively small.
Exhibit 1:
The pre-crisis view on capital market assets
Deka-FTP-Ex-1
Source: DekaBank
As a consequence, the outflow is 100% neutralized with a cash inflow and the mismatch disappears. The asset is now self-funded. Correspondingly, with no mismatch on the radar screen of the treasury and no long term funding impulse, there was a fair argument that a trader should only pay the repo rate as FTP or pay no more than EONIA / EURIBOR flat or equivalent based funding. This was all fine with high quality assets in very liquid markets, but might have gotten more complicated with less liquid securities. In essence the underlying assumptions were ultra-liquid assets, in ultra-liquid markets where neither market, nor funding, nor macroeconomic liquidity risk existed.
Moving closer to today, a laundry list of factors has emphasized the importance of FTP and collateral optimization and the technologies that accompany them. The factors we include are: recent regulations; balance sheet deleveraging; the increasing role of central clearing and CCPs; regulatory and central bank demands for transparency; internal auditors; and even internal trading desks when confronted with their funding costs. These have all increased pressure on Money Market, Treasury, repo, securities lending and collateral management departments to improve transparency on pricing and bring more rigour to their allocation methodologies.
Part of the new pricing paradigm are haircuts. While most people only had a limited understanding of haircut calculation before 2007 / 2008, today we find all kind of haircuts: central bank haircuts, LCR or NSFR haircuts, large exposure risk haircuts, VaR and gap risk haircuts, FSB haircuts, stressed and going concern haircuts, etc. Haircut calculations have become an art in itself and are an important driver of FTP or collateral optimization as they are used to inject longer term funding impulses into security positions, repo or securities lending and even structured or derivatives transactions.
Taking the same example from above, this trade is not only not self-funding, but it generates a strongly negative funding position (see Exhibit 2). Less liquid credit assets like NIG rated ABS, CLO’s, CDO’s or third tier equity, etc. now have a much more limited funding value. In this example they attract a 50% haircut. And what is more, this haircut gives rise to a €50 million negative liquidity mismatch, which shows up on the mismatch radar screen of the treasury and creates a long term funding impulse. With the cost of funds at 50%, a five year Asset/Liability Management curve and only 50% EONIA/market-based funding, it is obvious that the cost of liquidity has increased significantly for the holder of such a position. Accordingly, the trading position or instrument is not self-funding any longer.
Exhibit 2:
The post-crisis view on capital market assets
Deka-FTP-Ex-2
Source: DekaBank
Now, this would probably not be such a big issue if we had long term repo- or long term securities lending markets that would be able to manufacture term funding liquidity at reasonable cost. But currently, more than 80% of the securities lending and the repo markets are less than one month duration and offer no means to close negative funding mismatches in later time buckets.
As a consequence, haircuts have partially eroded the market and asset based funding system. Capital markets activities are now a term funding drag for the bank and are in competition for term liquidity with both, internal and external actors. Investment bankers are back to the negotiation table with the treasury department. In order to keep these negotiations from getting too unwieldy, a fair and transparent FTP methodology has to be implemented.
The Practice of Funds Transfer Pricing
FTP is the practice of allocating funding costs fairly across all parties. It is at heart a governance matter, ensuring that liquidity givers and takers are each compensated for their actions. As a governance process, FTP has four parts:
Liquidity Management
o Transparent liquidity reporting
o Make mismatches transparent
o Improve liquidity planning
o Ensure compliance with regulatory liquidity ratios
o Allocate cost of liquidity
buffers
P&L Management
o Determine P&L after Funding Cost
o Manage Funding Cost at Desk / Unit Level
o Determine Fair price for firm Liquidity
Balance Sheet Management
o Ensure efficient balance sheet utilization
o Help determine cost of balance sheet utilization
Pricing
o Determine fair transfer pricing between liquidity providers and liquidity users
o Determine correct LVAs for derivatives
o Ensure transparent liquidity prices
The hardest piece of FTP is actually figuring out how the pricing methodology occurs. Some firms have turned to market-based funding rates (repo and securities lending) while others use a haircut methodology. Some firms use a combination including taking haircuts from multiple internal and external sources. A 2014 white paper by SunGard, Finadium and InteDelta described a methodology for finding the fair value of an asset for FTP. With this collection of methodologies, it would come as no surprise that the FTP values across security types are a complex function of haircuts, funding and market liquidity and regulatory requirements (see Exhibit 3).
Exhibit 3:
A practical outcome of FTP for securities
Deka-FTP-Ex-3
Source: DekaBank
The exhibit shows an example for a level 2B security and a non-HQLA security. FTP decomposes any security position into different buckets of varying liquidity. The ultra-liquid parts may still be self-funded and attract a short term repo rate. The less liquid parts of a security position attract a higher portion of term money and thus higher costs of funding. In the below example, the Level 2B security attracts 50% funding at the one month bucket. The LCR haircut attracts funding at the three-month (internal or benchmark) rate, reflecting the fact that in order to neutralize the LCR impact you need longer term funding than just one-month. Eventually, there is also a longer term component (in this example illustrated by the ECB haircut), which attracts a one year funding impulse.
As can be seen in the exhibit, the non-HQLA asset attracts even 90% 3- months funding. The respective funding rates for the one, three or 12 months buckets may depend on the mix of funding instruments and access to funding markets for a certain institution (e.g. money market / deposit based funding, access to repo, CP, securities lending markets and other factors). It may be based on benchmarks like EONIA, EURIBOR or a mix of all the above. The methodology as outlined is relatively robust. As regulators inject even more long term funding impulses, e.g. through the NSFR, the methodology can be easily adopted.
Once you have proper funds transfer pricing for different collaterals as outlined, it is easy to construct FTP for repos by just adding or subtracting the term cash legs to the collateral leg. FTP for securities lending can be derived by adding / subtracting the FTP for the two collateral legs, or if that is easier and more direct by adding a repo and a reverse repo. As a consequence, you will have covered short term products in a straightforward, simple and transparent methodology that is both robust and flexible with regard to new requirements.
Regulators have made term liquidity both an essential as well as a finite resource of capital markets activities, despite the cash overhang created by QE in different parts of the world. This happened through simple measures like the de facto introduction of haircuts through of the LCR, NSFR, or by making it more difficult for beneficial owners to lend on term. As a consequence, costs of funds went up and financial institutions had to deleverage their balance sheet.
The Quest for Term Funding
The question is whether capital markets can create new sources of term funding to mitigate these effects. Repo CCPs may be a good starting point, however, with the exception of ultra-liquid government securities, which are self-funded anyway, term markets have not really developed there. Also, establishing term markets on a CCP is not a straightforward task. CCPs can change the collateral composition and counterparty risk requirements pretty much overnight, thereby invalidating the term nature of any transactions immediately. We are now discussing LCR baskets, but this is just an exchange of HQLA vs cash and will not do anything to generate term liquidity. Hence, what is good for systemic risk may be counterproductive for the development of secured term repo / securities lending markets. Bi-lateral transactions do work of course, but are not as balance sheet or capital effective as CCP transactions. That said, there have been some new ideas with regard to constant maturity type transactions recently. Eventually, term funding may be forthcoming from the shadow banking sector, but would this be in the interest of regulators and central banks?
Final Thoughts
Regulators as well as central bankers need to understand that by manipulating funding relevant haircuts (for instance by introduction of regulatory ratios like the LCR and NSFR), they can increase or decrease capital markets activity, respectively funding and market liquidity. Haircuts and market based funding levels are different sides of the same coin determining the internal and external cost of funds. Haircuts that are too high will exert funding pressures despite QE and prohibit market liquidity. Haircuts that are too low may lead institutions to leverage up their activities too much and add to too much credit sensitive assets to their trading books and balance sheets. Here, regulators and central bankers have some fine tuning to do.
Against this backdrop, FTP has become a requirement for any bank and capital markets division today. It is vital to have a fair and transparent methodology that allocates costs amongst liquidity givers and takers, thereby allowing institutions to price transactions according to their internal and external costs of funds. And here, banks have some optimization to do in steering and managing the supply of term liquidity that central bankers and regulators have allowed into the markets.

Michael Cyrus
Head Short Term Products, Equity Finance & FX
Deka Investment – Germany
who will deliver a Presentation at our 5th Annual Collateral Management Forum. If you would like to receive more information please Request the Conference Agenda.